Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.525124 0.611204 0.706533 0.819880 0.950935 1.097663 1.274382
2025-02-23 0.380645 0.494797 0.635218 0.820412 1.058032 1.352516 1.745114
2025-03-02 0.299877 0.421747 0.583284 0.812559 1.129154 1.550516 2.153666
2025-03-09 0.248754 0.373121 0.548324 0.812311 1.199215 1.744722 2.571681
2025-03-16 0.203804 0.323434 0.501178 0.783327 1.218837 1.864366 2.892777
2025-03-23 0.188303 0.314030 0.509770 0.835011 1.360298 2.173608 3.526568
2025-03-30 0.160261 0.279978 0.474689 0.812326 1.381141 2.298295 3.886498
2025-04-06 0.136729 0.249457 0.440430 0.785003 1.388710 2.399419 4.215894
2025-04-13 0.117778 0.223834 0.410516 0.760134 1.395586 2.497483 4.547745
2025-04-20 0.106647 0.210542 0.400054 0.767484 1.458456 2.696267 5.074550
2025-04-27 0.101428 0.207476 0.407449 0.807869 1.585100 3.020125 5.860576
2025-05-04 0.094720 0.200504 0.406465 0.831874 1.683106 3.300949 6.595855
2025-05-11 0.086907 0.190502 0.398882 0.843089 1.759817 3.554078 7.315335
2025-05-18 0.078756 0.178684 0.386243 0.842660 1.813608 3.769543 7.987393
2025-05-25 0.070932 0.166403 0.370975 0.834562 1.850136 3.953699 8.615442
2025-06-01 0.064725 0.156806 0.360104 0.834307 1.902775 4.175640 9.345816
2025-06-08 0.057009 0.142602 0.337275 0.804555 1.887180 4.251650 9.770791
2025-06-15 0.055998 0.144180 0.350185 0.857607 2.063098 4.759016 11.199364
2025-06-22 0.050031 0.132757 0.331487 0.834322 2.060473 4.870850 11.747966
2025-06-29 0.044475 0.121557 0.311873 0.806275 2.043026 4.946670 12.220828
2025-07-06 0.039695 0.111677 0.294214 0.780748 2.028447 5.027096 12.712659
2025-07-13 0.037117 0.107309 0.289847 0.788293 2.096753 5.311230 13.728239
2025-07-20 0.036356 0.107833 0.298153 0.829747 2.256057 5.832666 15.386975